Over 20 days in June, IEM Cologne noticed $109.3 million traded on US-based prediction market Kalshi as a fairytale storyline drew to a conclusion in Germany.
The $109.3 million represents quantity of contracts traded, so doesn’t essentially signify quantity of precise cash wagered, or deal with in conventional sportsbook phrases. Nonetheless, it’s a formidable determine that goes to point out there’s important curiosity in esports betting when the occasion magnitude is there to match.
Kalshi · Prediction Markets
IEM Cologne 2026
CS2 prediction market exercise · full match
Jun 2–21, 2026
$109.3MTotal traded
1.53MTrades positioned
$5.46MAvg per day
2,956Markets open
$71.62Avg commerce measurement
20Days of motion
IEM Cologne ran throughout three Swiss-system group phases earlier than a single-elimination playoffs on the LANXESS Enviornment in Cologne. Levels 1 and a pair of had been performed behind closed-doors, earlier than EFG opened the Palladium to 500 followers for Stage 3 matches. The playoffs then headed to the long-lasting ‘Cathedral of Counter-Strike’ the place probably the greatest to ever grace the server, Nikola “NiKo” Kovač, snagged a historic first Main title with Group Falcons.
Cash Traded Carefully Adopted The Match Levels
Over on Kalshi, the cash adopted the match development pretty carefully, as proven by the info.
Stage breakdown
Quantity by Match Stage
Kalshi prediction market contracts traded · IEM Cologne 2026
Jun 2–21, 2026
S1 15%
S2 16.4%
Stage 3 36.9%
Playoffs 25.1%
Stage 1
Jun 2–5
624 markets
$16.4M
15.0%
Stage 2
Jun 6–9
728 markets
$17.9M
16.4%
Stage 3
Jun 11–15
1,069 markets
$40.3M
36.9%
Playoffs
Jun 18–21
528 markets
$27.4M
25.1%
Stage 1 opened on June 2 with $3.46M traded on day one. Quantity stayed regular via the primary 4 days as 16 lower-seeded groups fought for Stage 2 spots. Stage 2 jumped greater when the top-seeded invitations — G2, Vitality, Spirit, NaVi, FURIA, Falcons — entered the sphere. In the end, each phases had been simply whetting the urge for food for the latter phases of the match.
Stage 3 is the place the actual acceleration hit, as all the match heavy-hitters got here out swinging. June 12 hit $9.97M, with June 13 following up carefully with $9.75M. Two consecutive days above something the primary two phases had produced mixed in a single day.
Behind the info is the truth that the third stage was the primary section the place each match performed was a better of three, creating longer sequence, extra in-play resolution factors and better swings for merchants to replace and get entangled in numerous positions because the storylines unfolded.
The height day for buying and selling was June nineteenth, the place the Group Spirit versus Falcons semi-final on the LANXESS Enviornment helped drive $10.05 million of buying and selling in a single day of Counter-Strike motion.
Quantity
Every day Buying and selling Exercise
Complete USD traded per day throughout all CS2 markets
Jun 2–21, 2026
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Playoffs
Relaxation day
$0
$2M
$4M
$6M
$8M
$10M
Jun 2: $3.46M
Jun 3: $3.98M
Jun 4: $4.65M
Jun 5: $4.31M
Jun 6: $5.17M
Jun 7: $4.98M
Jun 8: $4.38M
Jun 9: $3.41M
Jun 10: $2.15M (relaxation day)
Jun 11: $7.14M
Jun 12: $9.97M
Jun 13: $9.75M
Jun 14: $7.29M
Jun 15: $6.16M
Jun 16: $2.94M (relaxation day)
Jun 17: $2.14M (relaxation day)
Jun 18: $5.69M
Jun 19: $10.05M — Peak day
Jun 20: $7.96M
Jun 21: $3.66M
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
June 2026
$10.05M
Stage 3 alone accounted for 36.9% of all match quantity, with $40.3 million in match buying and selling throughout 5 days. The Playoffs added $27.4 million from simply 4 days. Mixed, the ultimate 9 days of competitors generated greater than 60% of the match’s whole market exercise.
The Matches That Moved The Most Cash
As we’ve mentioned in our earlier items on esports prediction markets, buying and selling quantity tends to correlate on matches the place real uncertainty conflict with high-stake matchups. The later within the match go, the extra important the curiosity. Equally, there’s extra quantity traded when a sequence goes to the wire (by advantage of there being extra maps, and greater swings in implied chance of both workforce successful).
Match quantity
Prime 15 Matches — All Levels
Ranked by mixed market quantity (either side)
Jun 2–21, 2026
1Falcons vs FURIAGrand Closing$3.64M
2Spirit vs FalconsPlayoff SF$3.45M
3Vitality vs FalconsPlayoff QF$3.30M
4G2 vs Natus VincereStage 3$2.62M
5Spirit vs G2 EsportsPlayoff QF$2.44M
69z vs SpiritStage 3$2.56M
7Falcons vs Natus VincereStage 3$2.07M
89z vs FURIAPlayoff QF$1.94M
9G2 vs FalconsStage 3$1.71M
10BIG vs NRGStage 1$1.44M
11Spirit vs Aurora GamingStage 3$1.31M
12B8 Esports vs BIGStage 2$1.26M
13BetBoom vs FalconsStage 3$1.16M
14GamerLegion vs B8 EsportsStage 2$1.05M
159z vs VitalityStage 3$1.02M
The highest 4 most-traded matchups had been all from the Playoffs — the Grand Closing, each semifinals, and the Spirit vs. G2 quarterfinal. Each match within the prime eight crossed $1.9M in mixed quantity (that’s, folks choosing both workforce to win). The Grand Closing between Falcons and FURIA was the only most-traded match of the match at $3.64M, with 34,330 trades positioned throughout the sequence.
The Spirit vs. Falcons semifinal generated the best commerce rely of any match at 47,787. Whereas the ultimate was a little bit of an underwhelming rollover, the Spirit vs Falcons match was an thrilling affair that evidently noticed appreciable buying and selling exercise, reflecting markets that had been continually being repriced because the groups traded digital blows on the server. Fewer trades, however greater quantity recommend that individuals held dedicated positions within the Grand Closing, and the shortage of any actual drama meant there wasn’t many individuals coming in and buying and selling off their beforehand held positions.
Additional down the checklist, the Stage 3 look of G2 vs. NaVi ($2.62M), 9z vs. Spirit ($2.56M) and Falcons vs. NaVi ($2.07M) exhibits that the Swiss format’s later rounds drew near-playoff ranges of curiosity when elimination was instantly on the road.
Falcons, Spirit, and G2 Appeal to Most Dealer Curiosity
For the needs of this information extraction, we excluded the general outright winner market, given the market was open for longer than the twenty days coated on this pattern. For the under information, we amalgamated the matches every workforce had been concerned with and totalled them to point out which groups garnered most curiosity from merchants.
By workforce
Most Curiosity by Group
Complete quantity from all matches every workforce participated in
Jun 2–21, 2026
1Team Falcons🏆 Champions$15.74M
3G2 EsportsPlayoffs$8.59M
7Natus VincereStage 3$5.10M
9Aurora GamingPlayoffs$4.25M
10B8 EsportsStage 3$3.56M
12FUT EsportsStage 3$2.65M
Group Falcons led each workforce with $15.74M in whole match market quantity throughout their seven matches, showing in additional high-stakes markets than every other roster from Stage 2 via to the Grand Closing sweep of FURIA.
Spirit sit second at $11.43M, a determine closely weighted towards the again half of the match. Their Stage 3 run was flawless, and their quarterfinal towards G2, which went to a 25-22 additional time on Mirage, was the fourth most-traded match of your entire occasion at $2.44M.
G2 Esports ($8.59M) and FURIA ($8.41M) are third and fourth respectively, regardless of FURIA’s run all the best way to the ultimate. The Grand Closing alone contributed $3.64M to their whole; the 2 semifinals added additional quantity, and their Stage 3 matches towards 9z introduced much more. On this measure, FURIA attracted the second most curiosity (behind Falcons) of the Playoffs section. That is virtually widespread sense, given they performed extra matches (by advantage of reaching the Grand Finals) but additionally means that the market was merely not that serious about them within the earlier phases.
9z at $8.07M throughout six matches present the energy of the underdog within the information and a spotlight from merchants. They entered Stage 1 and had been contributors in among the most heavily-traded matches of the match. 9z’s Stage 3 clashes with Spirit ($2.56M) and Vitality ($1.02M), and their quarterfinal towards FURIA ($1.94M), all rank within the prime 15 markets general.
Natus Vincere’s $5.10M regardless of not reaching the Playoffs displays how a lot consideration their Stage 3 exit attracted. The group’s three matches towards Spirit, Falcons and G2 had been among the most traded matches at IEM Cologne.
Editor’s word: The figures on this article replicate contract quantity traded on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market. One contract represents $1 in notional worth, however this isn’t instantly corresponding to deal with in conventional sportsbook phrases. Contracts may be purchased and bought a number of instances earlier than settlement, which means whole quantity could exceed the amount of cash in the end in danger. All information covers the interval June 2–21, 2026 and is restricted to single match buying and selling markets referring to IEM Cologne 2026.
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