A Polymarket workforce member has accused rival prediction market platform Kalshi of vastly inflating its esports buying and selling volumes.
In a now-deleted put up on X, the consumer shampoo claimed Kalshi has inflated its esports quantity to as a lot as $1.7 billion, when the true determine ought to be round $63 million.
Shampoo’s bio merely says “esports @Polymarket”.
The consumer argued that Kalshi is “inflating their numbers by $1.7b with some generic “Esports” class. The proper quantity is the sum of all the kids beneath, round ~$63m, which remains to be lower than 10% of our Esports quantity.”
They added that Kalshi is double-counting Counter-Strike markets by referring to it each as “CS:GO” and “CS2”.
Each Kalshi and Polymarket have been increasing their esports markets, and though it might be tough to inform the precise buying and selling volumes on markets, it’s clear that many customers are cashing in on wagering on occasions.
Polymarket Beforehand Accused Of Inflating Figures
The accusation comes after Polymarket additionally confronted claims that it’s overestimating its buying and selling quantity. The Polymarket workforce member says these accusations have been lies unfold by Kalshi.
Matt Huang, CEO of investor agency Paradigm, mentioned a bug in Polymarket’s system means its quantity is being double-counted.
Huang shared a put up from analysis companion Storm Slivkoff claiming that “each main dashboard has been double-counting Polymarket quantity.”
The put up got here only a week after Paradigm led a funding spherical of $1 billion in Kalshi, valuing the corporate at $11 billion.
Primo Information, an X account devoted to knowledge reporting at Polymarket, responded that the claims are inaccurate. The account mentioned that Polymarket doesn’t double-count knowledge, however makes use of the identical reporting strategies as Kalshi.
In a put up on X, they defined, “The first dashboards that present each Polymarket & Kalshi present notional quantity from the taker — which is according to each other and, once more, no double counting.”
Slivkoff emphasised the difficulty impacts third-party analytics somewhat than Polymarket’s inner reporting, replying, “This put up isn’t about Polymarket’s web site, it’s in regards to the frequent dashboards that individuals use for monitoring Polymarket quantity.”
Researchers Additionally Declare Quantity Is Inflated
Final yr, researchers at Columbia College printed a paper titled “Community-Based mostly Detection of Wash Buying and selling”.
The authors additionally didn’t recommend that Polymarket itself was chargeable for artificially inflating numbers, however mentioned parts of the change’s crypto-based construction made it potential.
The researchers estimated that “transaction patterns indicative of wash buying and selling started to pattern upward in July 2024, peaking at practically 60 % of quantity in December 2024.” This fell to round 5% in April final yr, earlier than rising once more to twenty% by early October 2025.
In complete, Polymarket studies buying and selling quantity of $22.2 billion, with $16.2 billion of that within the final yr. Kalshi, in the meantime, studies over $41 billion in all-time quantity, with over $39 billion of that within the final twelve months.
Nick Preszler of Melee Markets argues that a greater system of monitoring quantity is required. In a put up on X, he gave an instance of the issue, stating, “(I)f a consumer buys $10 value of contracts at .1c every, they’re risking $10, however get credited for $10,000 of quantity as a result of they’ve bought 10,000 contracts.”
Whereas most which have claimed volumes are inflated say the businesses will not be intentionally manipulating the figures, the Polymarket workforce member claims Kalshi is mendacity on goal in relation to its esports markets. Kalshi has not responded to the accusations.
